Trump administration cuts might price Republicans their majority within the Home of Representatives

WASHINGTON — For nearly a decade, former President Donald Trump rallied voters with calls to reduce the size of the federal government and “drain the swamp.”

But now a Republican running in a key race for a House seat is trying to distance himself from the proposed cuts, as well as Trump's plans to remove 100,000 federal workers from the Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia region while firing “renegade bureaucrats” – a policy that could cost that region's economy billions of dollars.

Derrick Anderson is the Republican candidate running in a hotly contested race to represent Virginia's 7th congressional district in the House of Representatives. The district is home to nearly 60,000 federal employees, or about 15% of the population. Even more work as federal contractors..

Anderson said in a statement to CNBC that he would “oppose any legislation that could weaken national security, increase the cost of living or jeopardize VA-7 jobs, no matter where it comes from.”

“This is my home district and I will do everything I can to protect it,” he said.

According to the Cook Political Report, Virginia's 7th Congressional District is one of the most competitive House races in the country. But Anderson is not alone. He is the latest example of how Republican congressional candidates in tough elections are being selective about how they align with Trump and how they show their independence.

Although Republicans held the majority in the House of Representatives that year, their narrow majorities often led to chaos, an inability to advance some of their most important priorities, and difficulty passing legislation that absolutely had to pass.

For Republicans to implement their program in 2025, they will need to win elections in several districts that supported Biden in 2020. In November of this year, they will likely support Harris.

Anderson's opponent is Democratic candidate Eugene Vindman, the twin brother of Alex Vindman, who testified during Trump's impeachment trial in 2019.

During a trip to Stafford on August 27, during which Vindman went door to door in 90-degree heat, after just a few doors he began speaking to a self-described “govie,” a government employee who had concerns about some of Trump’s proposals.

Anderson is endorsed by Trump, but Vindman has significantly more financial resources for the campaign. As of June 30, Vindman's campaign had raised $7.5 million, while Anderson's campaign had raised just $1.4 million.

In addition to moving 100,000 employees out of the area, Trump also wants to make it easier to fire full-time civil servants and replace them with politically loyal employees under an executive order often referred to as “Schedule F.” That move alone could affect tens of thousands of federal employees, many of them in Virginia-O7.

In his policy plan, titled “Agenda 47,” Trump also lays out plans to crack down on “renegade bureaucrats” and “remove all corrupt actors in our national security and intelligence apparatus.”

This is a very emotional moment for Vindman. He and his brother were both fired from their jobs in the White House after Alexander played a prominent role in Trump's impeachment proceedings.

“It would be devastating for this area,” said Vindman. “Fundamentally unfair, but devastating for this area, because we are talking about thousands and tens of thousands [of] pretty well-paying jobs. It would be terrible.”

If the plan is implemented, it would not just be federal employees who would be affected by the work of contractors and other workers in the region, says Terry Clower, a professor at George Mason University and director of the Mason Center for Regional Analysis.

He estimated that for every job the federal government creates in an area, another 0.6 jobs will be created – that is, the loss of 100,000 federal employees would equate to 160,000 jobs. Clower estimated that this projected job loss could cost the state between $27 and $28 billion per year.

“If all of these companies left Virginia completely, manufacturing would probably be about 5% of gross domestic product,” he said. “That would be a pretty severe recession by modern standards.”