Economic woes from inflation appear to have accelerated a shift among Latino voters toward Republicans, cutting Democrats' lead with a critical group of voters in half ahead of a close presidential election, according to an NBC/CNBC/Telemundo poll.
The poll of 1,000 likely Latino voters found the Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, leading the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, 54% to 40%. That's significantly less than the 36-point lead that President Joe Biden had leading up to the 2020 election. Biden's lead was almost half the 50-point lead Hillary Clinton had over Trump in 2016, reflecting a longer-term trend that shows Latinos are in the Democratic camp, but in declining numbers.
“There is an intensity to these issues that is quite striking,” said Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, senior vice president at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey. “The cost of living and inflation are really what inform a lot of the way people think about the economy and the economic future of the country.”
The survey was conducted September 15-23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Harris' 14-point lead is the narrowest lead by a Democratic candidate among Latino voters surveyed in at least the last four elections, dating back to 2012. The poll also found that 54% to 42% of Latinos favor Democratic control of Congress, the Democrats' smallest margin since 2012. That suggests a shift that could be broader than just the presidential election.
“The data in this poll is not a flash in the pan,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, who served as the Republican pollster for the survey. “It is a continuation of a steep and massive shift in the political identity of one of the most important groups of voters in America.”
Harris has a strong lead among respondents when it comes to questions of character: Latino voters surveyed believe she is better able to respond to their needs by a ratio of two to one; 48% rated Harris favorably, compared to 32% for Trump; And on the question of who has the right temperament for the office of president and who is more trustworthy, competent and effective, she was ahead of Trump by around 20 or more points.
However, the survey shows that inflation and the cost of living are the two biggest issues facing Latinos, along with jobs and the economy, mirroring surveys of the broader population. Trump leads Harris on both counts, with a 46% to 37% lead over Harris on who is better at handling inflation and a 45% to 41% lead on handling the economy.
Harris has a 39-point lead on the question of who would be best placed to humanely treat immigrants and protect immigrants' rights, a 32-point lead on the abortion issue, and even a 5-point lead on crime. Harris' dominance on these questions underscores the importance of the economy and inflation in explaining Trump's gains among Latinos in this poll compared to 2020.
Harris' lead over Trump narrowed significantly among younger voters ages 18 to 34, who favor the Democratic candidate by just 10 points, compared to 44 points in 2020. Trump and Harris are tied 47/47 among Latino men tied, a group that Biden leads by 17 points in the polls leading up to the 2020 election. The Democratic lead among Latino women is a sizable 26 points, but that's about half the lead Biden had in 2020.
All of these groups rate the economy poorly, with Latino voters overall rating the economy about as negatively as the rest of the country. Just 23% rate the current economic situation as excellent or good, while 77% rate the economy as fair or poor, nearly matching the results for all voters in August's CNBC All-America Economic Survey. This is a potential problem for Democrats because Latinos are fairly reliable Democratic voters and look nothing like Democrats on the economic issue. In the CNBC poll, 42% of Democrats rated the economy as excellent or good, compared to 23% of Latinos in that poll. 65% of Latinos say their wages are lagging behind inflation. While that's roughly in line with the rest of the population, it's 11 points higher than the NBC 2022 Latino survey. Younger Latino women and adults say they are hit hardest by the higher prices.
Among those who say they are falling behind, 48% say the biggest impact is due to the cost of food, 34% point to rent and mortgage, and 10% point to rising healthcare costs.
While Latinos have widely varying views on immigration, it is ranked only the fourth most important area of concern, far behind inflation, jobs and even threats to democracy. The poll found that 62% of respondents believe immigration helps the country more than it hurts, while 35% say the opposite. It is the lowest positive reading for Latino immigration since at least 2006.
According to the poll, Trump leads Harris 47 points to 34 on the question of who can better secure the border and control immigration.
A modest majority of 52% of Latino voters said it was more important to provide immigrants with a path to citizenship and prevent discrimination, while 47% said it was more important to secure the border and prevent immigrants from entering illegally.
Still, 91% support creating a path for undocumented spouses to gain citizenship, and 87% support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants brought here as children.
Here is a demographic profile of Latino voters from the NBC/CNBC/Telemundo poll:
- 52% say they primarily speak English, while the remainder say they speak only Spanish or both.
- 56% trace their family ancestry to Mexico; 16% to Puerto Rico; 11% to Spain; 5% to Cuba; 5% to the Dominican Republic.
- 49% identify as Democrats, 37% as Republicans and 13% as Independents.
- 32% say they are liberal; 37% are moderate; 29% are conservative.
- 49% are Catholic, 21% are Protestant, 28% are other/none.
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