East Germany is an excessive right-wing stronghold-the economic system has contributed to the truth that that is potential

Alice Weidel, candidate for chancellor of the right-wing extremist Alternative for the political party in Germany (AfD), speaks to supporters, while she waves German flags at the rally of the AfD election start.

Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty pictures

The German right-wing extremist party dominates less than two weeks before the national elections on February 23, surveys in the eastern region of the national and economic concerns have played a role in their popularity.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the economy in East Germany broke wide, as local companies and companies stalled and unemployment rose. Although the federal government spent hundreds of billions of euros and increased the region's economy and developed its infrastructure, turbulence has left a sour taste in the mouth of many from the region.

“Since the transformation of the nineties, economic uncertainty has been a regular feeling in part of the eastern German population,” Mans Weisskirch, political scientist at TU Dresden, told CNBC.

This has played in the hands of the alternatives for Germany (AfD) and other marginal parties of Germany, which historically do much better in East Germany.

The Germans will give two votes in the surveys of the next week: one for which the candidate directly represents their constituency, and one for a party.

The most recent survey and modeling of YouGov in the constituency shows a right blue wall in the east of Germany. In most eastern constituencies, AfD candidates are at the top. However, this is not the case in the whole country.

The CDU with its CSU party carries out national surveys with around 30% of the votes, while the AfD is in second place with around 20%, which reflects the growing support of the party across the country. The AfD won a little more than 10% of the votes in the last national elections.

It is unlikely that it will be followed by the next prevailing coalition because the mainstream parties have so far refused to work with the AfD.

Economic perception compared to reality

After the German reunification according to the fall of the Berlin Wall, the economy of East Germany was characterized by lower incomes, higher unemployment and weaker growth compared to the West.

These problems have largely disappeared since then, and factors such as economic growth and unemployment are no longer important concerns, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist near Berenberg.

The Germany's IFO Institute for Economic Research forecasts Economic growth of 0.7% in East Germany this year, more than expected as a whole. Data from the German Federal Employment Authority show that the unemployment rate in East Germany has halved more than its highs, whereby the gap is shrinking heavily compared to unemployment in the West.

In a way, East German states are ahead of their western colleagues, said Schmieding.

“The cost of living is adapted, the standard of living of the East German is no longer significantly below that in the West. The infrastructure is usually new and in a better form than in most parts of the West,” he told CNBC.

Nevertheless, the residents in East Germany still have a negative perception of the economy, according to the examinations of 2024. One of five people believed that they had lived in a region with new growth.

Matthias Diermeier, head of the research unit for democracy, society and market economy at IW, told CNBC that AfD supporters have only a little more concern about their personal economic situation than others “, their perception of the economy in general is much worse.”

The vast majority of AfD voters say that they are concerned about the broader economy, while those who support other parties are added at the other end of this spectrum.

AfD uses economic uncertainty

Despite what IW describes as a clear economic catch -up process, the inequalities between east and western Germany remain, Diermeier stated.

“This is considered unfair, unfair … by supporters of the marginal parties, but it is also a feeling that is very strongly activated by these political actors” of economic uncertainty, as a “citizen of the second class” and social decline among voters .

“And that's what you make very successful,” said Diermeier.

At the same time, the AfD puts the accuracy of positive economic news in question and view of perception that the economy is not doing well, a “simple game” by saying that mainstream parties, statistics authorities and other state-controlled body are misleading voters, he said.

The AfD did not respond to CNBC's request for comment.

TU Dresden's Weisskircher also found that the historical context is an essential factor.

“Business sciences are due to a feeling of long-term uncertainty and the unclear economic prospects in a region in which serious economic problems occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s, including in a region in the nineties and early 2000s Economic problems occurred, “he said.

Anti-immigration, anti-establishment, anti-climate change

It is not just economic concerns that have driven the success of the AfD in East Germany.

The opposition to immigration is much higher in East Germany, and the mainstream parties in the region have less loyal base, where they were not so present before national reunification, said Weisskircher.

Skepticism compared to climate change and the politics of green energy are also part of the AfD campaign. In particular, wind turbines have become a controversial topic, with the main candidate of the AfD, Alice Weidel, for the upcoming choice, which is required to be torn down.

The AfD also positions itself as the party that represents those who have been left behind.

A growing number of East Germans leaves more rural regions in favor of large cities, explained Berenberg's Schmieding, and this has burdened local companies, services and development. The remaining in these areas are the main goals for the rhetoric of the AfD, and as Diermeier from IW found, research has shown that these demographic characteristics are more susceptible to vote to the right.