Poster for Wicked and Gladiator II
Sources: Universal (L), Paramount (R)
The box office this weekend will be painted pink and green, with a splash of red.
Universals “Evil” and Paramounts “Gladiator II” will be released before Thanksgiving and is expected to gross over $200 million in combined ticket sales this weekend.
“'Wicked' and 'Gladiator II' are the kind of counter-program duo-punch that theaters and audiences have been eagerly waiting for,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analysis at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “This fall's box office has seen its fair share of ups and downs, as usual, but these two films are on track to kick off a potentially historic holiday run, with 'Moana 2' also set to deliver big on Thanksgiving next week.”
“Wicked” has already grossed $19.2 million at the domestic box office in weeknight advance screenings. Amazon Prime members donated $2.5 million to 750 theaters in the US on Monday, and another $5.7 million was raised on Wednesday at around 2,000 cinemas in the US and Canada. “Wicked” brought in an additional $11 million from regular Thursday night previews in about 3,300 theaters.
Guidance for “Wicked” started at around $80 million in late October, but has since increased to a range of $120 million to $140 million, with some predicting even higher three-day totals for the film’s debut weekend.
Hollywood has had difficulty marketing and making a profit on movie musicals in recent years. However, the industry has also seen fan-favorite IP-driven titles achieve above-average success. Since “Wicked” is based on one of the most popular Broadway musicals, box office analysts have a hard time predicting where the film will land.
“Wicked” initially received a “Fresh” rating of 92% from more than 160 critics on the review website Rotten Tomatoes. Its Popcorn Meter, a metric the site uses to calculate what percentage of verified movie ticket holders have rated the film 3.5 stars or higher, is at 99% with more than 2,500 reviews.
Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande play Elphaba and Glinda in Universal's Wicked.
Universal
Whatever the weekend has in store, “Wicked” may be the most successful Broadway adaptation in cinema history. The current record holder is Disney's According to Comscore, “Into the Woods” grossed $31 million in its first three days in theaters in 2014.
Meanwhile, “Gladiator II” grossed $6.5 million in Thursday previews and is expected to add between $60 million and $80 million to its domestic weekend total. The film, which comes 24 years after the original, has received a 73% “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes across more than 200 reviews. By comparison, “Gladiator” grossed $34.8 million on its opening weekend in May 2000.
The Power of “Glicked”
“The so-called 'Glicked' film mashup is reminiscent of the 'Barbenheimer' phenomenon and is creating a cultural stir,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “And while not quite on that level, it certainly raised the profile of both films and, combined with the overwhelmingly positive reviews, propelled these two very different films to opening weekend stardom and, more importantly, long-term playability over the holidays.” positioned away.”
Between “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and previously released films still in theaters, box office analysts are predicting a weekend of ticket sales between $200 million and $250 million. While that's impressive, it still wouldn't rank among the top 20 grossing weekends of all time, according to data from Comscore.
The “Barbenheimer” weekend of July 21, 2023 surpassed $311 million, making it the fourth-highest weekend grosser of all time.
“It’s not just about the first few hours or days, though,” Robbins noted. “These films can and likely will continue to do well in the coming weeks, especially if word of mouth reflects the response from critics.”
This weekend's tally will help bolster annual box office totals, which are 11% behind 2023 levels over the same period. And moviegoers will be treated to advertisements for more films coming out in December and later in 2025.
“Our job is to maximize what comes through that door,” said Greg Marcus, CEO of Marcus Corp.Owner of Marcus Theaters and Marcus Hotels & Resorts. “Take care of our customers. Provide a great experience for customers who come by. Make sure the lines are processed as quickly as possible so we can literally serve them and show them what a great time it is.” Go to the movies and enjoy something with other people.
Marcus Theaters joins dozens of other large and small theater chains in offering guests drink and food specials, themed popcorn buckets and drink containers, and other movie merchandise at their locations.
Cinemark features a “Gladiator II” popcorn bucket shaped like the Colosseum and a gladiator helmet that fits over the drinking cups and holds popcorn. Regal has a cup shaped like a witch's hat. AMC's The menu features pink and green candy-coated popcorn, as well as a selection of themed drinks such as Green Apple ICEE, Sprite variants called Ozdust Punch and Emerald Elixir, and alcoholic drinks called Popular Pink and Gravity Green.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, CNBC, Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Wicked.”
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