Strong snow in Tallinn, Estonia
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The Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are preparing for possible sabotage and cyber attacks this weekend because they complete their long -awaited decoupling from the Russia's power network.
The Baltic States separated from Moscow “Brell” Energy Network on Saturday and can complete their connection with the European electricity system on Sunday.
The Baltics grid operators said on Saturday morning that the decoupling was successful, and Lithuania's Minister of Energy Zygimantas Vaiciunas said to a press conference: “The Baltic power supply system is finally in our hands – we have control” in comments that were reported by Lithuanian Sender , Lrt.
The decoupling is a crucial way to ensure energy independence and security and to reduce the remains of the post -Soviet era that the Baltic states have bound to Russia.
Gert Auväärt, head of the Estonia Cyber Security Center, told CNBC that the country works closely with its neighbors in the cyber security area in order to prepare for potential risk scenarios when the decoupling takes place.
“The transition was planned thoroughly, and experts assess the likelihood of serious problems as low. However, Russia can try to take advantage of this time to create uncertainty,” he said on Thursday in E -Mail comments.
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“Thanks to the strong national and international cooperation, Estonia is also well prepared for the worst scenarios-this does not mean that such threats will occur,” he added.
Whether Russia has to be unanswered
However, the potential for retaliation measures from Russia is taken seriously by the Baltic Sea Energy Ministries and Gear System operators such as Estonia, the state network operator of Estonia.
“The preparations have been completed and we are ready for desynchronization,” said Kalle Kilk, head of Elering, in an explanation on Thursday and described the process as a “unique company in the latest energy history in terms of its scale and complexity.”
“Although important technical changes always contain certain risks, we have thoroughly analyzed them and developed suitable action plans. With a planned transition, the average power consumer should not notice any changes.”
“However, what cannot be predicted 100 % is a situation in which energy is used as a weapon. What is dangerous is not so much the connection between Russia because we have been preparing for years, but are still connected to continue To be connected to the Russia electricity system, “said Kilk.
CNBC asked the Kremlin and the Russian Energy Ministry for a comment and is waiting for an answer.
Countdown to “energy independence”
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the European Union in 2004 and changed the dial in the relationships of the nations for an indefinite period.
Since then, the states have tried to align their power grids with the rest of the EU. The block provided grants for the synchronization, which is considered a strategic priority, supplied grants of more than 1.24 billion US dollars (1.24 billion dollars).
The Lithuanian Minister of Energy Zygimantas Vaiciunas (RL) speaks at the joint press conference for the meeting of the Minister of Baltic Energy with Latvian climate and Minister of Energy Minister Melnis, Minister of Estonian Climate Local Yoko Alender and State Secretary of the Polish Ministry for Climate and Environment, Krzystof Bolesta in the Polish Ministry of Climate and the Environment, Krzystof Bolesta in in the State Secretary January 2025.
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The feeling of urgency about decoupling accelerated itself after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, whereby the conflict among other former Soviet republics – including Baltike – also led to fears that they will also be exposed to similar Russian aggression in the future.
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia's persistent use of the energy infrastructure of the Soviet period were also seen as a source of serious uncertainty, with concerns that Russia could disrupt power supply at will.
The Baltic States are on the “Front” with Russia and its ally Belarus (Latvia has a border with both, Estonia borders on Russia, while Lithuania made a border with a belarus a goal for “hybrid” threat activities, from cyber attacks to Sabotage of electricity and communication cables under the Baltic Sea.
Cyber attacks against Estonia rose in 2022 after the full invasion of Russia in Ukraine in Russia, said Auväärt of Estonia CNBC.
“These ranged from chopped -historical DDOS [distributed denial-of-service] Attacks on more demanding, targeted operations against government agencies and companies. While Estonia is able to counteract these threats, the general risk level remains high. It is often difficult to determine whether enemy cyber activities are associated with certain events or part of a wider strategy, ”he noted.
Final chapter
Since the energy systems in Baltices and Russia combine in 1991 despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, the planned decoupling from Russia is both significant and symbolic more than 30 years later.
“The move of the three Baltic states will be the highlight of the multi-year-olds and billions of euro efforts to cover critical energy infrastructure from the Soviet networks that are seen as the source of uncertainty,” Andrius Tursa, Central and Central and Eastern Europe consultants for the Risk monitoring Teneo, said this week in E -Mail comments.
“The federal states have increased the physical and cyber security of their energy systems in the expectation of potential external interference efforts during this highly symbolic and technically complex transition,” he said.
The separation from the IPS/UPS transmission system managed by the BRELL agreement took place on Saturday, began in Lithuania and ended in Estonia. The Baltic States then carry out joint frequency and voltage tests over the weekend, “in order to cope with the procedural and technical measures of the Baltic states for maintaining the frequency and their ability to manage independently,” said the Grid operator Erering.
Electrical power lines of the short circle (short locomotive) on June 18, 2020 in Tukums near Riga, Latvia. Latvia completed a new high-voltage current line to Estonia at the end of 2020 to align the Baltike power grids and not in Russia with neighbors of the European Union.
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The derynchronization process will be completed on Sunday afternoon when the Baltic states combine and synchronize their grids with the continental European network, which is known as a synchronous grille of Continental Europe or UCTE.
Kaspar's Melnis, Minister of Climate and Energy in Latvia, already said that there have already been attempts to spread misinformation about the changeover, and explained: “Under complex geopolitical conditions, it is true that society is more vulnerable and as a specified date for the conclusion Synchronization is more susceptible to the project, the more we encounter misleading information.
“Therefore, we ask the public to critically treat information, not to impair emotionally charged statements and not to share any news that have not been checked,” he said in comments that have been verified on the Letta Grid operator AST AST AST.
The synchronization with the rest of the continent was crucial for the Baltkes, added and “aims to ensure that we can maintain and control the grille ourselves, ensure stability and do not depend on the actions of our neighbors.”
The upcoming synchronization among Baltic energy operators is noticeable. The Grid operator AST even has a countdown for the “Baltic States' Energy Independence” on its website.
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