ROME, ITALY – JULY 03: Harry Kane of England celebrates with Raheem Sterling after scoring his third goal during the UEFA Euro 2020 Championship quarterfinal match between Ukraine and England at the Olimpico Stadium on July 03, 2021 in Rome, Italy Team has scored.
Ettore Ferrari – Pool / Getty Images
Goldman Sachs’ Euro 2020 probabilistic model now predicts England will win its first major international football tournament since 1966 as the Three Lions prepare for Denmark in the semi-finals at Wembley Stadium on Wednesday.
Gareth Southgate’s side confidently dismantled Ukraine on Saturday to prepare England’s first European Championship semi-final in 25 years, while opponents Denmark beat the Czech Republic 2-1.
Italy defeated the top ranked team in the world, Belgium, and reached the other semi-final against Spain, which narrowly defeated Switzerland on penalties.
After the last of the quarter-finals, Goldman’s Christian Schnittker posted a note on Sunday entitled “It’s (Probably) Coming Home” – a reference to The Lightning Seeds song “Three Lions” often ironically sung by long-suffering England fans .
“Italy’s 2-1 win over Belgium came as a shock to our model, who so far saw Belgium as the most likely team to take home the trophy,” said Schnittker.
“After Spain beat Switzerland (1-1, 3-1 (P)), Spain will face Italy in the first semi-final on Tuesday, where our model predicts a narrow Spanish win. With Belgium now out of the competition, our model is out sees England as favorites for the European Championship after beating Ukraine 4-0. “
According to Goldman’s probability model, England now has a 57.7% chance of reaching the final and a 31.9% chance of winning the tournament. Spain is at 54.6% and 24.6% respectively, while Italy’s chances of reaching the final are 45% and winning is 22.4%.
Denmark retains its underdog status with 42.3% when reaching the final and 21.1% when winning.
The model expects England to beat Denmark 2-1, which would mean England goalkeeper Jordan Pickford finally conceded his first goal of the tournament, while Spain are likely to beat Italy 2-1 in extra time.
The model is based on data from around 6,000 games since 1980 and takes into account a number of factors, including squad strength, current form, venue and performance in major tournaments.
However, when the model was first introduced in May, the Wall Street giant admitted that all predictions remain “very uncertain” – that’s the nature of the beautiful game.
The European football umbrella association UEFA has postponed the Euro 2020 to June 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic.
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