A banner with an image of Alberto Nuñez Feijoo, leader of the PP party. Voters in Spain go to the ballot box on July 23 to cast their ballot and elect Spain’s next government.
Pablo Blazquez Dominguez Getty Images News | Getty Images
Spanish voters head to Sunday’s elections, which could see the far right come to power for the first time since Francisco Franco’s dictatorship.
Polls released ahead of the vote predicted a Conservative victory, with the PP (Partido Popular) taking about 34% of the vote – not enough to form a majority government.
Some political analysts see PP merging with far-right party Vox, which could be the third-strongest political force in this election, garnering more than 10% of the vote.
“The most likely outcome is a coalition government with PP at the top and control of most key ministries and Vox as junior partner,” said Federico Santi, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, in a statement on Wednesday.
He added that this scenario would be “moderately positive for the market, as reflected in Spanish asset prices in recent weeks, with Spanish equity indices slightly outperforming their European peers, while the government bond spread versus Germany has remained broadly stable.”
Not her first time
The conservative PP party and the far-right Vox have previously struck political deals to govern in three Spanish regional authorities and have struck further deals in smaller towns.
However, their relationship appears to be more of a forced cohabitation than a natural partnership.
A billboard for the right-wing extremist party VOX is vandalized with black paint during the election campaign.
Pablo Blazquez Dominguez Getty Images News | Getty Images
In a televised debate ahead of the elections, PP leader Alberto Feijóo indicated that he would govern with Vox if he needed their votes. Conservative Party members have raised concerns about Vox’s anti-LGBT rights and anti-immigration policies.
Vox has also been criticized by mainstream politicians for speaking out against abortion rights and denying climate change, among other things.
Debating incumbent Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez, Feijóo said his rival cannot lecture other politicians about pacts. Sanchez made deals with separatist parties to secure a working parliamentary majority.
It’s the culture wars
Tacho Rufino, an economist at the University of Seville, told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed on Thursday that this election is less about economics and more about cultural issues – including nationalism, LGBT rights and climate change.
For his part, Sanchez has been criticized, for example, for pardoning politicians who advocated regional independence. During his tenure, there were also problems with the Yes Means Yes Sexual Consent Act, which looped through a loophole that reduced prison sentences for many convicted rapists.
Sunday’s vote could also be affected by climate change as this is the first election to take place in the summer. Spain is among the southern European countries that have experienced a significant heatwave in recent days.
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